Only time will tell, but I’m curious what everyone’s predictions are. Yes/no and for what reasons?
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Apple Vision Pro, as in the product currently on the market, almost certainly no. With its drawbacks and price point, it only appeals to a very small group of people. However, I think Apple intends to build an entire Apple Vision ecosystem and that might eventually be successful if they stick with it. But I think to be a viable product for consumers, it would have to be proper lightweight AR-glasses instead of just a VR headset with very good passthrough. It’ll have to be comfortable enough and have the battery capacity to be worn for many hours. That kind of technology still seems pretty far off though, so I wonder how Apple plans to bridge that gap. It’ll be difficult to keep app developers interested in a product with a very small userbase.
Pretty much agree with all of that, especially with them having to bridge the gap until they can make glasses.
I don’t know, I can see the full headrest getting more powerful and people using it as their main work device - especially with people working from home.
For that use case I don’t think it would need to go all the way to at headset, just a bit lighter with a bit more battery and a bit more power and a few more killer apps that make it feel worthwhile.
how do you define successful?
Don’t know. I guess for one if the product line still exists in the medium future and if it receives an occasional hardware update.
If the software platform is sustainable for developers. Sales/usage numbers.
My impression of the reviews so far is that people were very hyped for it, but that hype is dying down.
I don’t see anyone consistently carrying that huge case around every time they take an airplane, or use the headset for the single blown up monitor, and most people will probably watch TV shows and movies with others. Video calls is probably not a huge use case. Most of the games are flatscreen games and while impressive, usually the path with the less friction wins and putting on a headset is something that most people don’t enjoy. Immersive games and experiences are the only unique use case and it doesn’t seem like that’s a huge focus for Apple, at least now. I don’t see them adding controllers and without them gaming will be really limited.
So my guess would be that it’s going to stay a product line and slowly get more compelling over time, but it’s going to be a long time until this will be more than a niche product for Apple, if it ever manages to break out of this. I‘d guess only if it reaches a glasses form factor will it have a bigger main stream appeal. But that’s obviously all just guesses.
I play VR daily and I’m a big fan of Apple products, but most people are not into VR as much as I am and most of the problems and limitations are shared by the Vision Pro as well. The most important being friction and comfort and I don’t see that changing drastically anytime soon.
This is a developer kit being sold to the public. The next release which should be more consumer friendly should be a better product to judge success by.
I mostly agree with the conclusion of the recent Mrwhosetheboss video.
He predicts that the current Vision Pro is mostly for developers to get used to the environment, so that when AR takes off, all the apps, SDKs, libraries, whatever will be Apple exclusive, giving Apple a huge advantage.
Yeah that makes sense. In the ads, the vision pro looked like it advertised some stuff which mostly developers care about… Like -raytraced audio- and stuff.
I agree with this idea. There is no way Apple thought it would be as popular as the watch or buds, especially given the price point and lack of market adoptable utility. They didn’t even have enough utility to market it compared to the watch. With the watch they showed all the neat utility it has and with the Vision they just said “Here it is, it can be a virtual desktop or whatever”.
The smart play with emergent technology is to gain a foothold of development and competency. Doing that takes time and money, both can be hard to bear(even for a company like Apple) so releasing an enterprise version can help to ease the R&D costs and test the waters for viability. I don’t see the Vision as being anything more than enhanced market research and marketing with some profit generation.
I think the next generation of Vision will be cheaper and more viable a product for wider adoption. I would expect it two years after Vision’s launch and they will have more usability with a smaller form factor. They really need to be shooting for a sub $1,000 price point but the closer they get to $500 will be better and with enough utility that entices people to use it at least a few times a week. If they can make it action sports cinematography, e.g. GoPro, that would really help sales.
